Using Geographically Weighted Regression to Study the Seasonal Influence of Potential Risk Factors on the Incidence of HFMD on the Chinese Mainland

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an epidemic infectious in China. Its incidence affected by a variety of natural environmental socioeconomic factors, its transmission has strong seasonal spatial heterogeneity. To quantify the relationship between HFMD (I-HFMD) eight potential risk factors (temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure, altitude, child population density, per capita GDP) on Chinese mainland, we established geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to analyze their impacts different seasons provinces. The GWR successfully describes changes influence risks, shows greatly improved estimation performance compared with ordinary linear (OLR) method. Our findings help understand seasonally spatially relevant effects I-HFMD, can provide information be used develop effective prevention strategies against at locations seasons.